2021-Week 47

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QUICKLINKS

AVOCADO OVERVIEW

SUPPLY UPDATE

The figures released this week saw Western Australia maintain the lead in production contributing 71% of the total national harvest of some 492,802 trays last week; followed by New Zealand at 18%; Tristates at 4%; Central NSW with 4%. The remaining 3% came from Tamborine/Northern Rivers and South Qld. This production figure represents an increase of 3% (just over 14,000 additional trays) on the week prior and was 13% higher than what was forecast for the week. 

All major supermarkets are selling premium Hass at $1.00- $1.19 per piece, whilst independents were selling class one fruit also for $0.99-$2.00/piece depending upon quality/size. Within the markets things have remained relatively unchanged, premium trays of WA hass are selling in the range of $15 -$20/tray (very good quality getting up to $22) depending upon size and quality of each line; whereas premium NZ fruit is fetching $12-$15 (anything with colour or out-of-date spec is selling for $6-$10).  Pricing for class one fruit has remained stable (main sales) is ranging $6 -$14 per tray; whilst the bulk market has been experiencing prices for premium in the range of $6 to $14 (2nds) --$14-$28/ctn for premium bulks depending upon grade, quality and count size. 

The outlook for the next month to two months is more of the same - it is unlikely that current pricing and market volumes will change very much at all, unless something drastic occurs. What does this mean for the flow on 2022 Shepard season, well for a start we don’t believe there will be the early season high prices that some have come to expect - there may be an uplift with the start of the fresh season, but it will be short-lived and not in the $45-$60/tray range as it has in previous seasons. The other major change that has been eluded to, is a definitive start date and finish date for each vendors supply to the supermarkets, ie it might only be an 8 week window whereby we have to hit the figures we forecast on the head each week if we are wanting sales to grow. For this reason, I am reaching out to you to provide us with your own forecasts of what you believe you will harvest this upcoming Shepard season, with proposed start date of late Feb through to end of April ?? If possible to gauge main size at this stage; it would be great to know this as well. Paul and myself will be up in the growing region middle of next week (1st and 2nd December), so we will be calling in to discuss this and review the 2021 season with each of you - please let me know if one date suits you better and we will try to accommodate.

The national production of Hass this week is forecast to be in the vicinity of 430,000 trays and then the forecast is for figures ranging 460-497,000 trays per week through until Christmas. The last four week period has seen an average national dispatch of 481,863 trays per week.

You will note that WA have contributed a larger percentage of the national volume last week (71%) which equates to approximately 349,889 trays which was 10K fewer trays than the week prior - again weather has played a part with a few more light to moderate showers throughout the past week. The weather in the south west corner of WA has continued to be cool though with early morning minimum temps ranging 6.3 to 13.7C and daytime maximum temps of 17.2 to 29.3C. The Manjimup region experienced a light 13.6mm of rain. The available meteorological data for the Pemberton region shows that it has been experiencing cool mornings with lows of 7.1-14.2C and warmer daytime averages of 19.1-25.1C; they too have had a drier week with only a fall of 16mm cumulatively across the week. Despite these figures not sounding much by way of North Qld comparison, the lay of the land and soil types means this volume does tend to make it wet underfoot and therefore more different for machinery etc.

Avocado display presentation in Qld stores this week was generally pleasing and pricing in all three major supermarkets varied a little depending upon store location; sizing stocked and banner. The majority of stores this week were stocking NZ stock, though 1 of the 3 Woolworths stores visited had WA hass on offer. Fruit age in all stores was found to be ranging 20 to 28 days.

In terms of Hass retail pricing in Qld shelf prices were as follows:  Aldi Qld had increased their ticket price for Hass to $1.19ea;  Coles Qld had Hass ticketed at $1.00 ea; and Woolworths Qld had prominently positioned instore displays of Hass also ticketed at $1.00ea. The fruit on shelves varied in condition with a range of 40-95% coloured on offer and ripeness ranging from soft; to yielding to very firm.

SUPERMARKET & MARKET PRICING FOR NEXT WEEK  

Supermarket pricing has remained constant with no further price increasing in the foreseeable future.

RETAIL SNAPSHOTS OF AVOCADOS

Below: Coles Carindale, Mt Gravatt and Indooroopilly Displays

  • Coles stores had Skylark Hass avocados priced at $1.00ea. Primarily all NZ stock - fruit with packed dates of 28th October - 4th November therefore fruit age ranged 20 to 29 days. Fruit positioned on ends as well as a table top display aligning entry or just inside the store entry.

  • Stores had 5 piece packs at $4.90 ea - these too were filled with fruit of NZ origin.

Below: Aldi Carindale and Mt Gravatt Displays

  • NZ Hass loose count 23/25 @ $1.19 each everywhere and 6 piece Hass nets filled with NZ fruit at $4.99

  • All fruit was well stocked and with loose having strong skin colour with a percentage being quite soft. Fruit age 29 days.

  • Evidence of some bruising; skin scarring and light sun blemish on some pieces.

Below: Woolworths Carindale, Mt Gravatt and Indooroopilly Displays

  • Stores had Hass avocados at $1.00 each - a presence of minor skin marking on a few lines but a good mix of maturity on offer. A mix of NZ and Australian grown fruit with packed on dates ranging 28th October- 4th November therefore fruit age ranged 20-28 days.

  • 5 piece packs at $4.50/ pack and 1kg Odd Bunch ticketed at $3.50ea

BANANA OVERVIEW

SUPPLY UPDATE

As expected over the past week the morning temperatures have continued to be warm up in North Qld with all regions early a.m. temps falling within a range of 16.4 to 23.9C; whilst day time temperatures have been on the rise in the last week ranging 29.3 to 35.7C. In terms of rainfall up to last Saturday both Innisfail and Tully had between 25 and 39mm respectively, since Saturday however it has been dry in these two regions. Walkamin and Mareeba have only experienced very light, isolated showers. Cavendish banana bunch age remains at 16 weeks on our farm currently, with fruit quality found to be good overall in the packshed. With the warm days the rate of fruit growth is certainly quickening and it is important for all farms to stay on top of girth measurements to ensure overall fruit length and girth is not exceeding specification. I am pleased to report that in relation to our ladyfingers the extra measures implemented on farm are starting to pay dividend. In an effort to reduce bronzing we are continuing to cut fruit a little thinner and we are continuing to cut bunches with reduced hang time - this will be an ongoing practise as we make our way around the farm and throughout the summer to assist in reducing maturity bronzing. As explained last week, to assist with reducing the sap staining as increased sap flow rates are synonymous with the warmer months of the year., we have made alterations to the packing line so that the hands are clustered at the beginning of the line to allow fruit more time in the trough to assist in stemming the sap flow and we have introduced tissue paper on the crowns and an additional sheet of paper in the carton to absorb any additional sap that may continue to flow to try and keep the fruit appearance clean - in the last fortnight arrival quality assessments are proving these measures successful and there has been less sap issues on arrival.

The national cut last week was again well in excess of 500K, with another week of solid production with a total of 532,936 cartons representing an increase of 51,186 ctns on the previous week. The forecast for this week is expected to be in a range of 510-530,000 cartons. Independent retailers were selling bananas at $1.99 to $2.49/kg again this week. The markets all have plentiful supplies of cavendish with fruit selling at $4-$14 per carton, dependent upon quality and quantity each agent has.

Cavendish in general this week presented well. Fruit was presenting quite cleanly though there was a percentage of oversize both in terms of girth and length found on all supermarket shelves. Low level minor dry scar; small rub marks; light bat/bird marking and sap staining were seen. Colour was generally good with more plentiful supplies of fruit ready to eat and brighter bloom than in recent times.

Retail ticket pricing in Queensland on bananas varied this week amongst the major supermarkets with Aldi’s ticket price at $2.99/kg; whilst Coles offered fruit at $2.50 to $3.50/kg depending upon store location and Woolies offered fruit at $3.00 to 3.50/kg varying with store location.










RETAIL SNAPSHOT OF BANANAS

Below: Coles Carindale, Mt Gravatt and Indooroopilly Displays

  • Cavendish was priced at $2.50-$3.50/kg, with Kids 750g banded clusters also $2.50-$3.50/kg. Quality across stores was quite good though some clusters found with minor skin marking, light bat/bird marking and rub marking.

  • Lady Fingers were priced at $7.90/kg and Red Tips at $3.90/kg.

Below: Aldi Carindale and Mt Gravatt Displays

  • Stores had Cavendish @ $2.99/kg.

    Lady Finger bananas were priced @ $5.99/kg - a few clusters found with bronzing.

Below: Woolworths Carindale, Mt Gravatt and Indooroopilly Displays

  • Woolworths had Cavendish bananas priced at $2.50/kg, Lil Sana kids banded clusters at $2.50. Displays were generally well presented with most stores utilizing the new bright shelf strips which highlight for customer stock that is ready to eat now and stock that will be ready in a couple of days - a little minor neck damage; minor bat/bird marking; major bruising (isolated) and rub marking observed in some stores.

  • Lady fingers were priced at $6.90/kg - rub and maturity bronzing found

  • Red tips were priced at $4.50/kg